Thu, 16 October 2014
I am one of those people who used to think that tons of companies were overvalued. However, I was eventually proven EXTREMELY wrong. As I learned throughout the early Internet days, inflation happens, the world changes, adapts, and now I'm starting to wrap my head around the notion that things aren't actually as over-valued as they may seem at first sight.
But, this notion of over-under-valuation is definitely a doubled-edged sword. There will be plenty of businesses overvalued due to early-stage hype, but if something has proven to have won and you think is the future of infrastructure, such as an Uber, then we need to start paying close attention.
And of course, there's plenty of people that have lost money buying into "over-valued" companies, but then again, many have won. When we need to start looking close is when things hit scale. In the early Internet days, many people thought Amazon and EBay were over-valued, until of course, the world began to catch up with them. They were just a step ahead of everybody. When the world begins to catch up, and normal people start to interact and utilize these platforms, that's when you're going to see a shift in scale.
The underlying difference in all of this is whether these shifts in value are temporary or long-term. If the signs point to a long-term, strong valuation, then it's likely that they're just working in the future, ahead of the game, while others are caught trailing from behind.